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Varying Polls Little Help in Predicting Election Outcome

(CNSNews.com) - Who's going to win in November? Will the Republicans maintain their hold by a hair or will the Democrats win by a few seats? The polls seem to produce new and varying answers from day to day. American Enterprise Institute scholar Karlyn Bowman said what must be remembered is that the midterm election is not one that is decided nationally but rather district by district. "The problem with the generic ballot question - if the election were held today for whom would you vote in your district, the Republican or the Democrat - is that it asks about a national election, but of course we don't have a national election" on Nov. 7, Bowman told Cybercast News Service. "We have 435 separate [House] elections, and we know of those 435 that probably only about 60 are competitive. So that question captures sentiments of the nation as a whole and doesn't necessarily capture sentiments of the districts that are very closely divided where both parties are pouring in tons of money," said Bowman, a resident fellow whose specialties include public opinion, polls and the media. A McClatchy-MSNBC poll Tuesday concerning control of the U.S. Senate stated: "Of the nine key battleground states, Republicans are ahead in two and within the polls' four percentage-point margin of error in three more." The battleground states are New Jersey, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, and Washington. The poll also reported that Republican Senate candidates held a narrow lead in two key states - Virginia and Tennessee. By contrast, a Gallup poll also released Tuesday said the Democratic lead remained strong, even though it had narrowed somewhat. "The Oct. 20-22 poll shows the Democrats leading among registered voters 53 percent to 38 percent, and 54 percent to 41 percent among likely voters. This marks a loss of some ground by the Democrats compared to the Oct. 6-8 poll in which Democrats led 58 percent to 35 percent among registered voters and 59 percent to 36 percent among likely voters," according to a Gallup news release. On Monday Barron's Magazine, a premier financial publication, predicted that the Republicans would retain control of Congress. The reason? Bigger campaign war chests. "Look at House races back to 1972 and you'll find the candidate with the most money has won about 93 percent of the time," wrote Jim McTague in a cover piece. The analysis expected the Republicans to retain control of the House while losing eight seats, ending with 224 of the 435 seats, and to hold the Senate while losing three seats, ending with 52 of the 100. Despite the varying indications from polls and pundits, Bowman said that "the polls have been pretty consistent all year" in predicting a Democratic takeover. "When they have a large lead, like they do right now, Democrats tend to do very well," she said. Citing historical Gallup polls, Bowman saw them as highly reliable. "If you look at Gallup's track record in asking that question, their question in 1994 - certainly the surprise election of all times - predicted a 48-seat gain for the Republicans [in the House] and it turned out to be 52," said Bowman. "It was pretty much spot on." Nonetheless, Bowman cautioned that it may be too early to predict the outcome. "I think a lot of people rush the calendar, there's no question about that. The polling business has already had dozens of questions about the 2008 election, and I think that's absurd. You've always got to be careful in politics about predictions, particularly early ones," she said. Make media inquiries or request an interview with Kate Monaghan. Subscribe to the free CNSNews.com daily E-brief. E-mail a comment or news tip to Kate Monaghan. Send a Letter to the Editor about this article.

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Varying Polls Little Help in Predicting Election Outcome

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